The Energy Transition Is Bigger—and More Unstoppable—Than We Think
- Matt C. Marino
- Nov 20
- 3 min read
Secretary Jennifer Granholm recently highlighted several major “non-core” milestones in the energy transition—progress that often gets overshadowed by the usual focus on wind and solar. Her recap was an important reminder: the energy transition isn’t just about renewables.
Too often we use “Energy Transition” as shorthand for wind and solar deployment. But the real story is much broader, more dynamic, and—despite some claims otherwise—far from “troubled.” With all respect to Daniel Yergin, the data simply tells a different story.
At ETX, backed by the momentum of #OBBB, we view the energy transition as the inevitable result of five underlying, unstoppable forces shaping global energy systems. These forces—economic, technological, regulatory, and structural—are already reshaping markets, often faster than observers expect.
Let’s break them down.
1. Global Growth: Surging Demand Redefines the Energy Stack
Even before the energy demands of the AI era became clear, the IEA was projecting nearly 1,000 TWh of new power consumption each year—the equivalent of adding 200 GW of new supply annually over the next decade.
As economies expand, the energy mix feeding this demand evolves too. The “transition” isn’t a clean substitution; it’s an ongoing build-out in which new technologies and fuels continually jockey for relevance.
2. Electrification: A Century-Long Trend That’s Still Accelerating
One striking data point from Visualizing Energy:
Total U.S. energy use increased 4× from 1920–2021.
But electricity consumption increased more than 100×.
This is not an anti-oil narrative. Electricity growth is largely incremental, not substitutional. Oil and power historically serve very different end uses—though new overlaps are emerging, especially with EVs. As more devices, industries, and processes electrify, the power system becomes the backbone of the entire energy economy.
3. Decarbonization: A Byproduct That’s Becoming a Feature
Electrification paired with massive demand growth has accelerated innovation across power generation technologies. Renewables offer a compelling value proposition: free fuel, infinite supply, and extremely low operating costs.
Nuclear brings a different strength—24/7 baseload reliability—with low emissions as a valuable bonus.
As these technologies gain ground, decarbonization becomes not only an environmental benefit but a market-driven outcome. The challenge, of course, is that global demand growth is so strong that clean-energy expansion is often offset on a net basis. But the direction of travel is unmistakable.
4. Deregulation: Opening the Door to Market-Driven Innovation
The modern U.S. energy marketplace began in earnest with PURPA in the late 1970s. What started as a crack in the vertically integrated utility model has grown into a complex, innovation-driven competitive landscape.
While regulation still plays a major role, we now have more choice, more entrepreneurial participation, and more pathways for new technologies to gain traction. In this system, the best electrons—delivered reliably and efficiently—win.
5. Disintermediation: Blurring the Lines Between Supply and Demand
Deregulation, distributed energy resources, behind-the-meter systems, microgrids, and on-site generation have all contributed to a world where the traditional centralized power model is no longer the default.
Instead, we’re seeing a rapidly growing market for customer-centric, modular combinations of energy hardware, software, and services. Supply and demand are becoming more intertwined—and more intelligent—than ever before.
Why This Matters
The energy transition is not a single technology or a policy mandate. It’s the natural output of structural forces reshaping how the world produces and uses energy. Global growth, electrification, cost declines, deregulated markets, and customer-driven energy solutions create a momentum that is—quite literally—self-reinforcing.
This is why we see the transition as inevitable, not troubled. The landscape is evolving too broadly and too quickly for any single technology—or narrative—to define it.
Sources:
Latitude Media - IEA: AI is 'not a primary driver'. . .
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